The Triple Crown Trail/Train Wreck

Normally the trail to the Triple Crown gives us exciting finishes in the top prep races run throughout the early portion of the winter/spring. This years renewal of the preps for the Triple Crown has done just the opposite.  Some say that this is the worst crop of 3 year olds since 2008 when Big Brown won the Derby from the 20 post, I would tend to agree that these colts are at least that mediocre, and one of the worst groups of 3 yr olds we’ve seen in quite some time. Some say run a filly in the Derby, their times are very similar, as a matter of fact R Heat Lightening ran her Oaks Prep a full second faster than Dialed In in the Florida Derby 24 hours later.  The banter for a filly to run in the Derby is legitimate, and two that I think would stand a fantastic chance of doing well are Zazu and Joyful Victory. Both are horses that relax and rate and would not find much trouble running past this group of Grade III 3 year olds.

Here are a few topics that really matter this time of year when it comes to dealing with those who should be considered as Contenders compared to Pretenders.


“Consider the times” – some people want to throw out times, especially when their favorite horse wins a race in a mediocre time or is just simply a slow horse, Dialed In falls into this category, the fact that Nick Zito is able to sell a dime store horse for a million dollar price to some on these blogs and horse racing fans in general gives indication that more and more are thinking with their hearts and not their heads. Closing the final 1/8th of a mile in almost 14 seconds took me off this horses band wagon, and well actually it should have knocked the wheels off the band wagon. Going forward some thought that Zito would crank the horse to get him ready for the Derby, if the 4f breeze in and uninspiring :49 gives you indication of being cranked, please feel free to lower his odds to 2-1 come post time. The objective handicapper would not take that chance.

“Consider the Conditioning”- humans make mistakes, but underestimating the movement forward of 3 year olds this time of year by Todd Pletcher (oh yeah an eclipse award winning trainer) and running his horse short in the Wood Memorial off a series of slow works that gave no indication of building a foundation, and then the quirky prep schedule that put Uncle MO on target to contest another 8.5f race impressively, well words can’t describe the disappointment of watching this horse struggle home the final ¼ mile in the Wood. The horse was short, that is all there was to it, when breaking the gates did he break like a horse with a GI issue, excuses of that nature don’t fly with me when dealing with horses that are raked with a fine tooth comb almost every day of their lives, can he bounce back, maybe, is that likely, absolutely not, his best bet is to look for 9f races down the line to try to garner 3 year old honors. Right now ArchArchArch leads in that category with at least 2 Graded stakes win.

“Consider the pedigree” The factor ran to his pedigree on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, breaking sharp but being out footed to the lead by a couple of horses that were better out of the gate, he was in trouble early, and he didn’t like taking dirt and he didn’t like have to rate with a hold on him, these things show up when a sprinter with the need to lead type running style has to take back for the first time, he resented other horses being beside and in front of him, when they hit the stretch he ranged up and then he spit the bit, not sure if that signals good things to come for this horse at a route of ground but I would tend to say no. What does he have, he does possess amazing speed that he can carry about a mile or so, and so leave him at that, let him take on Goldikova in the BC Mile, or maybe look at the Met Mile and other prestigious races. Be smart and take care of your horse, take a page from the connections of Turbulent Descent, they recognized that 9f was asking too much of their filly and took her back to sprints, there is nothing at all wrong with that. Some just have the Derby Fever and can’t leave well enough alone.

Lastly “Consider the Excuse or Excuses” There are plenty of them out there, what will you do when your horse loses. Find a vet that will validate (1) a small health concern, don’t step up to the plate and say in all honesty “I had him short today”, (2) he’s not cranked, that was the excuse for Dialed In running so slow in the Fl Derby, (3) Equipment Change, anyone ever heard of “If it aint broke don’t fix it” adding blinkers, removing blinkers, figure Eight, I mean what else would we need to do to see if we can’t get the horse to run faster. Resorting to these measures says that something isn’t right, but then when the horse resents it and throws in a clunker you want to go back to square 1, for what reason, I guess because you want a result like the one you received in the Gotham when a horse like Stay Thirsty wins by 4 lengths. “Displaced Palate” – probably legitimate, but you never know, saving face with that one in terms of The Factor is certainly not needed, he’s respected and always will be so hopefully they will get that fixed and Garcia will not be “Grabbing a hold of the horse” in the future so he can run his race. (4) Injuries have taken their toll on the Graded Earnings list. Tapizar, Clubhouse Ride, Permier Pegasus, Author’s Tale, boys of Tosconova , there are others I may be missing but these things happen, for some reason over half mentioned on this list come from California, why is that, why can’t they get their track right to stop the injuries. Hopefully there will be a fix soon, but the Derby Trail is affected by defections like this and its sad to see for these connections.

The Derby being wide open is an understatement, never before have we seen it like this, with such a group of inconsistent, sometimes slow horses, hopefully someone will emerge, and I see that horse being Nehro. Sleep on him if you want. He wants 10f and will get it on May 7. You heard it here.

"Commentator" - Risen from the Ashes

Edition #2 of the "Marcus in Seattle" Files.

He is listed on NTRA as "one of the most brilliant front runners in recent decades, he can simply blitz his competition off thir feet." He won the MassCap and the Whitney, both in stylish fashion. Every time he runs, I think of Trevor Denman calling a race right out of the gate.

"Annnnnddddd awayyyyy they go!

"That's emblematic of what I've come to know and expect from Commentator. Back to back wins in the Whitney. A nice Place in the Met Mile. Good racing, plain and simple. All of this seems amazingly surreal for a horse to accomplish at age 7 with all of his past problems. Health derails many careers. Zito took Commentator and allowed him to be great in time, instead of pushing him to fill pockets when he was younger. It seems to have panned out. The horse flys out of the gate, shows great speed and runs other horses into the ground. It seems like a sound method of running a horse; Hard Spun used the same tactic two years ago but didn't seem to have everything together in one race. On a side note, I've always admired Hard Spun. In other years, he would have been an elite horse. I won't dare say he had Triple Crown talent, but neither did Funny Cide and a few others. Hard Spun was just plain fun to watch. He had speed, could run all day and had a remarkable knack for being consistently in the race anywhere from 6 to 12 furlongs. From a trainer's standpoint, I'm sure Spunny was a dream horse. But all of that talent was retired too early. The potential not realized. Hard Spun might have been an excellent rival to Curlin this past year. We never will know.

But I digress, Commentator reminds me of Hard Spun in ways. Different in others. For one, Commentator was given the time to realize potential. He is 7 and yes I realize he is a gelding. When health issues showed up, they could have retired him. They didn't. I admire Nick Zito for that. In one year, I've seen an owner (Jess Jackson) race his colt for the good of racing and it's fans. Curlin not only raced for money but for legacy as well when he could have been in the shed. His place among the greats is secure. But now I've witnessed a trainer pull his horse from the ashes to try a campaign at age 7 that may put him in the company of Kelso and John Henry in the future. That's another man racing a horse for legacy. It's hard not to smile about that, right?

It's been a good year. Zenyatta is the best filly/mare out there. Curlin is now one of the immortals. The Europeans prove they can win on American Polytrack. Midnight Lute won back to back Sprint titles. And lastly, Commentator became a huge story not because he beat the best or made the most money. Rather, he displayed a dominance no one saw coming. He won big name races. It's that simple. I, personally, wish he would have been tested in the Dirt Mile but I'm alright with settling for the MassCap and Whitney performances. I hope he dominates in the Clark and then comes back next year. Maybe then some 3 year old will have our attention. Maybe Midshipman or Vineyard Haven romps in the Derby. Or maybe Commentator wins his third Whitney and takes the Classic wire to wire. It's a pipedream, I'm aware. But without Curlin, some of us have to find another horse to latch on to. I'm not sure I'll feel the same way about a 7 year old gelding as I did about Curlin but if Commentator can pull one more good year out of those achy joints and legs, 2009 might be just as good as 2008. If not better.